【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美联储议息会议：审慎决策的背后

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fourth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [1][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, aligning with market expectations. The focus is on the implications of the decision, including the dot plot guidance for future policy, the Fed's understanding of the economy and inflation, and Powell's outlook [1][7]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates a consensus among 19 participants, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025, while 7 foresee no cuts. The projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest one cut each year, with policy rates expected to decline to 3.875%, 3.625%, and 3.375% respectively [2][9][10]. Economic Projections - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.4% and 1.6%. Unemployment rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly increased to 4.5% [3][11][12]. Powell's Optimism - Powell expressed a relatively optimistic view on the economy, noting improved business sentiment and a stable job market. He acknowledged the delayed impact of tariffs on inflation and economic data [4][14][15]. FOMC Statement Changes - The FOMC statement showed minor changes, indicating a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but still highlighting elevated risks. The committee no longer views the probability of rising unemployment and inflation as worsening [5][17][18]. Neutral Stance and Future Flexibility - The meeting's neutral stance allows for flexibility in responding to economic data changes. The Fed faces a dilemma between cutting rates to support employment and maintaining high rates to control inflation [6][20]. The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in July, with a 57.9% chance of a cut in September [6][21].