【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】A股为什么短期风险偏好下降？

Core Viewpoint - The short-term risk appetite in A-shares is declining, with a weakening narrative from top to bottom, influenced by domestic economic conditions and increasing overseas disturbances [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Economic Conditions - The domestic economic support is in a transitional phase, with early signs of a decline in export demand and expectations for growth stabilization to materialize around September to October [1][2] - The market is currently in a window where policy easing may respond to market concerns, but significant fiscal measures are anticipated to be realized only in the later part of the year [2][3] Group 2: Overseas Disturbances - Increased overseas uncertainties, including the U.S. debt ceiling and geopolitical conflicts, are contributing to a suppression of risk appetite [2][3] - Key dates in July and August will be critical for assessing the outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations and other geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Narratives - The A-share market is experiencing a slowdown in AI investment compared to U.S. markets, with concerns about the pace of AI application in China [3] - New consumption sectors are facing challenges related to cost-effectiveness, which, combined with fears of overall consumption weakening, is leading to a noticeable contraction in profitability within these sectors [3][4] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - Defensive assets are expected to yield absolute returns in the short term, particularly in banking and high-dividend sectors like food and beverage [4][6] - The market is anticipated to remain in a high central tendency oscillation phase through Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with potential for an upward shift in the index central tendency by Q4 [5][6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term view remains optimistic, with expectations for a bull market phase between 2026 and 2027, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and increasing market profitability [5][6] - Strategic focus on sectors such as gold, rare earths, and defense industries is emphasized as they align with China's strategic opportunities [6]