台积电，头大

Core Viewpoint - TSMC faces significant challenges due to external factors, including potential revocation of exemptions for its mainland China operations and a strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which is expected to impact its profit margins and earnings significantly [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Impact - TSMC's gross margin and operating margin are projected to decline by nearly 5 percentage points due to the strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which has risen 12% this quarter [1][2] - The market's previous expectation for TSMC's gross margin to challenge around 58% in the second half of the year has been revised down to approximately 55% due to currency fluctuations and initial yield adjustments for 2nm production [1][2] - TSMC's revenue target for the current quarter is set between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with an expected quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly 13%, although the strong currency may hinder achieving higher profit growth compared to the previous quarter [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts predict that TSMC's earnings for the current quarter may only match or slightly decrease from the previous quarter, with an estimated earnings per share of NT$13, still surpassing the same period last year [2] - Historical data indicates that TSMC's second-quarter earnings have been better than the first quarter about 50% of the time over the past eight years, but there have been instances in recent years where second-quarter earnings declined compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Reports suggest that the U.S. may revoke exemptions for TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix regarding the acquisition of U.S. technology for their mainland China operations, which could impact TSMC's order intake from China [3]