Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is experiencing a commercial supply surplus, with a significant number of shopping malls opening without a corresponding increase in consumer demand, leading to many malls being abandoned or underperforming [3][5][10]. Group 1: Commercial Landscape in Shanghai - Shanghai has over 400 shopping centers, with one large shopping center for every 80,000 people, compared to Tokyo's one for every 200,000 [3]. - The city is expected to open around 60 new commercial spaces this year, totaling over 3 million square meters, with Minhang leading in new openings [3]. - Despite the increase in commercial space, the retail sales growth in Shanghai was negative in the first quarter of this year, indicating a disconnect between supply and consumer spending [4]. Group 2: Decline of Shopping Malls - Many shopping malls in prime locations are closing, including notable names like Pacific Department Store and Isetan, highlighting a trend of commercial attrition [5][6]. - The Aegean Shopping Center, which opened in 2017, has seen a dramatic increase in vacancy rates, with outdoor shops nearly 90% vacant [6][9]. - The competition among large malls, such as the Aegean and China Resources Mixc, is fierce, with the latter currently attracting more foot traffic [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The emergence of new shopping centers has led to a phenomenon where older malls are being abandoned, as consumer preferences shift [11][12]. - The Seven Puxian Road wholesale market has seen rental prices plummet from a peak of 70,000 to 500 yuan per month, indicating a significant decline in demand [15][17]. - The market is experiencing a bifurcation, with some malls successfully transitioning to high-end offerings while others remain stagnant [19][20]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies and Asset Sales - Wanda Group has been actively selling off commercial assets, including over 90 Wanda Plazas, to alleviate financial pressures, reflecting a broader trend among real estate companies [21][22]. - Other companies, such as Vanke and various insurance firms, are also divesting commercial properties to improve liquidity and focus on core assets [24][27]. - The shift from expansion to efficiency in the commercial real estate sector is evident, as companies adapt to a new era of competition and consumer behavior [28][29].
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