晶圆代工巨变：中国大陆崛起

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is facing complex decisions regarding autonomy or outsourcing, with significant reliance on overseas production, particularly from Asian countries [1][3][6] - The global supply chain is intricate and interdependent, prompting governments and companies to enhance resilience against disruptions [3][6] - The U.S. semiconductor companies account for 57% of global wafer demand but only control about 10% of domestic wafer foundry capacity, highlighting a significant dependency on foreign foundries [3][6] - China is rapidly emerging as a key player in the global wafer foundry market, projected to dominate with 30% of global installed capacity by 2030 [12][14] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8%, driven by increasing demand from servers, computing, and automotive sectors [9] - Advanced node manufacturing, led by companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, remains a focus, with significant investments in next-generation processes [9] - The open foundry model is gaining traction, expected to capture 69% of the market share by 2030, despite ongoing challenges in reducing physical characteristics [9][12] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The semiconductor industry has faced challenges since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2019, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions [6][12] - Government initiatives like subsidies and the "Chip Act" aim to bolster domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [6][12] - The ownership and location of foundries are becoming increasingly important, with the market dynamics shifting towards demand-side factors rather than just investment capabilities [14]