UBS(US:UBS) 华尔街见闻·2025-06-26 08:30Core Viewpoint - UBS warns that the current rally in the U.S. stock market has gone too far, suggesting investors consider reducing their positions as true risk appetite continues to decline despite surface market strength [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - UBS's proprietary "4M Midday Recovery Score," which measures investor risk appetite, has been declining and turned neutral on June 1, dropping to 9% by June 19 [3][5]. - Historical data indicates that during similar short squeeze scenarios, the S&P 500 index has averaged an 11% decline over three months, while the Nasdaq index has seen a 13% drop [2][8]. Group 2: Fund Flow Dynamics - Recent fund flow signals reinforce UBS's bearish outlook, with retail investors showing net selling in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, and foreign investors also net selling through U.S. listed ETFs [10]. - UBS anticipates a significant sell-off of up to $56 billion in global equities due to pension and target-date fund rebalancing, with $31 billion targeting international stocks and $25 billion for U.S. stocks [12]. - Corporate buybacks, a crucial support factor, are expected to weaken significantly, with weekly buyback amounts projected to drop to $30 billion and further down to $15-20 billion before early August [12]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Risks - UBS highlights the heightened risk for large-cap tech stocks, noting that short positions in Nasdaq 100 components are at a one-year low, and the put/call ratio for QQQ is at a five-year low [14]. - The report emphasizes that this configuration is dangerous, especially as the short squeeze has progressed too far, leading to insufficient hedging for large-cap tech stocks [17].