贝森特正在密谋一步大棋

Core Viewpoint - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reallocating U.S. Treasury ownership from foreign to domestic investors, thereby reducing reliance on foreign capital and financing the deficit through domestic resources [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which complicates the economic landscape [5][6]. - The U.S. has a significantly negative net foreign asset position, leading to a heavy dependence on foreign funding, which constrains its sovereign independence [6][7]. Group 2: Pennsylvania Plan Strategies - The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to facilitate a historic transfer of U.S. Treasury holdings from foreign to domestic investors [9][10]. - The plan includes two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of Treasury risks [10][11]. Group 3: Reducing Foreign Dependence - Foreign investors currently hold a record amount of U.S. sovereign risk, but demand is declining due to geopolitical shifts and increasing fiscal deficits [11][12]. - A proposed solution is to shorten the duration of foreign investors' exposure by using dollar stablecoins backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries to attract foreign capital [12]. Group 4: Increasing Domestic Absorption - The U.S. private sector has a strong balance sheet and high cash holdings, indicating potential to absorb sovereign credit risk [13]. - Policy measures may include regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and the issuance of special bonds to encourage domestic purchases of long-term Treasuries [13]. - If incentives are insufficient, mandatory purchases of long-term Treasuries may be implemented, such as pushing retirement plans to absorb more government debt [13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The "Pennsylvania Plan" may not fundamentally resolve the twin deficit issue but could provide the U.S. government with more time by mobilizing domestic savings [14][18]. - The strategy may lead to higher Treasury yields and erosion of Federal Reserve independence, as domestic savings are pushed towards long-term fixed-income assets [15][16]. - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [17].