特斯拉 Robotaxi：价值远超 Waymo

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is evolving into a full-stack infrastructure company encompassing energy, autonomous driving, and computing, which will enable it to reduce vehicle costs while expanding its autonomous taxi service and launching the Optimus unit [1][2][3] Group 1: Autonomous Taxi Service Launch - Tesla recently launched its highly anticipated autonomous taxi service in Austin, marking a significant milestone towards its vision of autonomous mobility, although it is not yet available to the public [1][2] - Initial feedback from invited users indicates a "smooth ride" and a "game changer" sentiment, with optimistic projections suggesting the autonomous taxi service could represent the beginning of a $1 trillion autonomous driving journey [2][3] Group 2: Market and Regulatory Challenges - Reports of Tesla's autonomous taxis frequently driving into wrong lanes or exceeding speed limits have drawn the attention of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), raising investor concerns about potential delays in the service's full rollout in Austin [1][3] - The recent public dispute between Elon Musk and former President Trump has raised concerns about possible regulatory hurdles that could impact Tesla's autonomous driving future [4][5] Group 3: Cost and Competitive Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration allows it to produce vehicles at approximately 25% of the cost of Waymo, enabling faster scaling of its fleet and operations compared to competitors [5][6] - The company is leveraging its data advantage to enhance its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, with a goal of launching fully autonomous vehicles by the end of 2026 [6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - Tesla's total revenue for the last quarter was $19.93 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year decline and a 24% quarter-over-quarter decline, primarily due to reduced vehicle deliveries and average selling prices [8] - Analysts predict a 0.35% year-over-year revenue decline for the current fiscal year, with a recovery expected starting in fiscal year 2026, driven by the increasing contribution of the autonomous taxi service to total revenue [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for Tesla, with a target price of $418 per share, as the operational leverage from the autonomous taxi fleet increases and the business model shifts towards recurring software revenue [2][13] - The autonomous taxi service is expected to account for 90% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2029, benefiting from its vertical integration and cost advantages [7][13]