这类芯片，寒冬已过？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the DRAM segment, with increasing prices, inventory reduction, and order recovery, indicating a potential new growth cycle ahead [1][24]. Group 1: Signals of Recovery - Signal 1: South Korea's DRAM exports have surged, with a 27.8% increase in March, 38% in April, 36% in May, and 25.5% in the first 20 days of June, marking a significant turnaround from previous declines [2][4]. - Signal 2: Samsung's DRAM performance is improving, with expected operating profit of 2 trillion KRW (approximately 1.5 billion USD) in Q2, driven by rising DRAM prices [6]. - Signal 3: DDR4 prices have nearly doubled, with a 16Gb DDR4 3200 chip price rising from 5.6 USD to 11.5 USD, while DDR5 prices have seen a more modest increase of 9% [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Signal 4: Micron reported strong financial results with quarterly revenue of 9.3 billion USD, a 15.5% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 36.6% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding market expectations [10]. - Signal 5: SK Hynix has gained a 36% market share in the global DRAM market, driven by its dominance in the HBM segment, which accounts for 70% of its HBM market share [11][15]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Industry - The current recovery is attributed to structural changes, including the active withdrawal of DDR4 products by major manufacturers, which reduces supply pressure and shifts focus to DDR5 and HBM [19]. - Capacity shifts towards HBM production are increasing unit profits, with SK Hynix raising its capital expenditure to 29 trillion KRW to support this transition [20]. - Policy-driven inventory accumulation due to uncertain trade policies has further pushed up short-term prices, contrasting sharply with previous pessimistic forecasts [21][22]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is entering a new growth cycle characterized by significant changes in supply dynamics, product focus, and market conditions, suggesting that the worst may be over for the sector [24][25].