Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-06-28 12:48Global Asset Price Performance - The Nikkei 225 index led the gains with an increase of 4.6%, while major US stock indices also saw rises, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 2.1%, 1.8%, and 3.7% respectively [1] - In the bond market, the yields on major government bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 12 basis points [1] - Commodity prices for gold and oil decreased, and the US dollar index dropped by 1.5%, with the British pound and euro appreciating the most [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, with market probabilities for a July cut rising from 10% to around 20% [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that if price pressures remain significant, a rate cut may be delayed until September or later [3] US Economic Dynamics - The US Q1 GDP was revised down from an initial estimate of -0.2% to -0.5%, primarily due to a surge in imports widening the trade deficit, along with further downward revisions in consumer spending [9] - The manufacturing PMI for June remained flat at 52, while the services PMI fell to 53.1, reflecting widespread tariff impacts on business activities [9] - The US housing market continues to decline, with May existing home sales showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, and new home sales experiencing a more significant decline [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's overall outlook remains weak, but Germany's economic sentiment has improved, with the composite PMI rising to 50.4, indicating signs of recovery in domestic demand [16] - Japan's economic outlook is optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI for May rebounding to 50.4, marking the first return to expansion since July 2024 [16] - Tensions in the Middle East have eased, with a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, providing a buffer against risks to oil prices and global markets [16]