Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2025-07-02 11:39Core Viewpoint - Tesla's current fundamentals are not optimistic despite the imaginative business model of Robotaxi, with analysts warning that the recent stock surge may be driven by short-term sentiment rather than sustainable growth [3][10]. Delivery Data and Sales Forecast - Tesla is facing a significant decline in sales, with a projected delivery of 394,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year decrease of over 11%, marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit declines [3]. - The total expected deliveries for 2025 are approximately 1.65 million, down about 8% from 1.79 million in 2024 [5]. Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in China has dropped from 15% in 2020 to 7.6% currently, with local brands like Xiaomi rapidly gaining traction [8]. - In Europe, Tesla's registrations have plummeted, with a 64.4% drop in Sweden and a 61.6% decline in Denmark, alongside a 31.2% decrease in Model Y sales [8]. Political and Regulatory Risks - Tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump are amplifying policy risks for Tesla, particularly concerning potential scrutiny of government subsidies that Tesla receives [9]. - The expiration of certain electric vehicle tax credits by the end of 2025 could further pressure Tesla's sales [9]. Future Outlook and Robotaxi - Despite current challenges, there remains high market anticipation for Robotaxi, with some analysts viewing Tesla as two companies: a declining traditional automaker and a promising autonomous driving technology firm [10]. - The successful commercialization of Robotaxi is uncertain, with significant hurdles such as regulatory, ethical, and safety issues that could impede large-scale deployment [10].