若鲍威尔怂了、美联储提前降息，对市场意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Vickie Chang's report analyzes four scenarios in which the Federal Reserve may implement monetary easing earlier than expected, highlighting that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar will be the main trends across all scenarios [1][2]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Downward Inflation Risk Drives Rate Cuts - If inflation data continues to exceed expectations or if the Fed believes the impact of tariffs is temporary, the market will lower the 2-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points [4]. - Market reactions include rising stock prices, declining bond yields, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [5][6]. Scenario 2: Declining Growth Expectations Drive Rate Cuts - A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations will fully drive the rate cut [7]. - This scenario may occur due to further deterioration in labor market and economic activity data, especially if the market doubts the limited damage from tariffs [8]. - In this case, both stock prices and bond yields will decline, with a slightly weaker dollar overall [9][10]. Scenario 3: Dovish Policy + Downward Growth Expectations - This scenario combines dovish policy impacts with negative growth shocks, pricing in both Fed easing and downward growth expectations [11][12]. - The U.S. stock market will see slight declines, with bond yields dropping more than in the previous scenarios, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [13]. Scenario 4: Dovish Policy + Upward Growth Expectations - In this scenario, the market prices in Fed easing while also raising U.S. economic growth expectations by 50 basis points [14]. - Risk assets perform strongly, with significant stock market gains, slight declines in bond yields, and a moderately weaker dollar, particularly against cyclical currencies [15]. Consistent Trends Across Scenarios - Across all scenarios, a decline in yields, a weaker dollar, and an increase in gold prices are consistent trends [16]. - The direction of the stock market is highly dependent on accurate assessments of growth expectations, as is the strength of risk currencies against the dollar [16][17]. Market Pricing and Future Outlook - The market has begun to price in Fed easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [18]. - Current market pricing for growth is slightly above the one-year forecast, but there is still potential for upward movement if the focus shifts to 2026 growth outlooks [18]. - If growth conditions remain stable, a dovish shift from the Fed could benefit risk assets, although current growth expectations appear relatively full compared to April [19].