被逼转型的晶圆代工巨头

Core Viewpoint - The shift of mature foundries like UMC and GlobalFoundries towards advanced processes is driven by market pressures, including fierce competition from Chinese foundries and a significant decline in the profitability of mature processes [2][10]. Group 1: Strategic Shifts of Mature Foundries - UMC is evaluating the feasibility of developing a 6nm process to support high-complexity applications, marking a significant strategic shift for a company that previously focused on mature processes [4]. - GlobalFoundries, which had previously abandoned advanced process development, is also showing renewed interest in advanced nodes due to changing customer demands [4][10]. - UMC and GlobalFoundries are exploring potential collaboration, which could lead to the formation of a new foundry giant that poses a structural threat to TSMC in the mature process segment [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Pressures - The rapid rise of domestic foundries in China, particularly SMIC, is reshaping the competitive landscape, with SMIC projected to surpass UMC in market capitalization by 2024 [8]. - The utilization rate of global mature process capacity has dropped from over 90% in 2022 to below 70% in 2024, leading to increased pricing pressures and reduced profit margins for mature foundries [9]. - UMC has reduced its capital expenditure budget to $1.8 billion for 2024, while SMIC continues to invest over $7 billion to expand its capacity [9]. Group 3: Challenges in Re-entering Advanced Processes - The estimated initial investment for a 6nm process is around $5 billion, which poses a significant financial challenge for companies transitioning from mature to advanced processes [11]. - The reliance on EUV technology for advanced nodes creates additional barriers, as the equipment is expensive and has limited availability, complicating the transition for companies like UMC and GlobalFoundries [11][12]. - The need to rebuild technical capabilities and attract talent in advanced processes presents a daunting challenge, as many skilled professionals have moved to leading players like TSMC and Samsung [13]. Group 4: Alternative Strategies from Other Foundries - Other foundries, such as VIS and PSMC, are focusing on niche markets and specialized processes, such as SiC and GaN, to differentiate themselves from competitors [15][16]. - Tower Semiconductor and X-FAB are also pursuing unique technological paths, emphasizing non-standard markets and regional manufacturing to avoid direct competition with Chinese foundries [17][18]. Group 5: The Landscape of Leading Foundries - Intel is facing challenges with its 18A process, considering significant strategic adjustments to attract key customers, while also dealing with delays in production timelines [20][21]. - Samsung has postponed its 1.4nm process launch to 2029, opting instead to enhance the efficiency of its existing processes to maintain profitability [25][26]. - TSMC continues to dominate the foundry market, with its market share increasing from 29.4% in Q1 2024 to 35.3% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for AI and HPC chips [28].