特斯拉Robotaxi服务上线，预测市场看空

Core Viewpoint - The probability of Tesla's Robotaxi service meeting success criteria is approaching zero, despite recent achievements by the company [1][3][11] Group 1: Current Status of Robotaxi Service - Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing service recently launched with nearly twelve Robotaxis operating in downtown Austin, Texas [1] - Currently, only invited individuals, primarily core users from the Tesla community, can request a Robotaxi, limiting the service's accessibility [6][11] - The betting market indicates a mere 2% chance of the service meeting its launch criteria by the deadline [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A total of $7.2 million has been wagered on the successful launch of the service, but the likelihood of a successful outcome is diminishing [2][3] - If Elon Musk were to open the service to all Austin residents, the situation could change, as this is a requirement for the service to be considered successful [5] - The betting market operates on a binary outcome, meaning that if the service does not meet the specified criteria by the deadline, all bets will be lost [7] Group 3: Tesla's Competitive Edge - Musk's commitment to scaling the Robotaxi service hinges on the proven safety of AI technology, which he claims can lead to exponential growth overnight [8] - Unlike competitors like Waymo, Tesla's vehicles are already equipped with the necessary hardware for autonomous driving, allowing for easier upgrades [9][10] - Musk has previously stated that a remote firmware upgrade could enable 3 million Tesla vehicles to achieve autonomous driving capabilities simultaneously [10]