特斯拉危机四伏｜车圈脉动 Vol.1

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has not launched a new model in six years and is shifting focus from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence and technology, despite still relying on vehicle sales for nearly 70% of its revenue [1][8]. Recent Developments Overview - Tesla's recent operations reflect a strategic shift towards becoming a technology company, moving away from traditional automotive competition [7][10]. - The company has faced a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 delivery volume, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth [8]. - Tesla's stock has dropped 26% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing tech companies in the U.S. [8]. Strategic Analysis - The decision to abandon the development of the budget model "Model 2" indicates a pivot towards high-barrier technologies like Robotaxi and humanoid robots [9][10]. - The launch of Robotaxi services is seen as a critical move to transition from vehicle sales to software-based subscription services [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla is losing ground in multiple markets, with competitors like BYD offering more advanced and cost-effective electric vehicles [12]. - The company faces significant challenges in maintaining its brand premium, with gross margins declining from a peak of 30.5% to 16.3% [15]. Challenges Ahead - Tesla's transformation from an electric vehicle leader to a software and AI company presents substantial risks and capability gaps [15]. - The potential for Robotaxi to deliver commercial value is uncertain, with estimated daily net profits per vehicle ranging from $25 to $40, but the technical feasibility remains debated [15]. - Predictions suggest a further decline in delivery volumes, with Bloomberg forecasting a drop to 1.65 million units in 2025, an 8% year-over-year decrease [15]. - The expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax credits in September 2025 could result in a loss of $1.2 billion in annual revenue for Tesla if not renewed [15].