Apple(US:AAPL) 国泰海通证券研究·2025-07-06 23:50Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy is entering a practical implementation phase, with risks gradually being released. The acceleration of AI development and the emergence of product innovations in 2026 will significantly benefit the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Trade Agreements - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, effective from July 2, imposes a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam, with transshipped goods facing a 40% tariff. Conversely, Vietnam applies a 0% tariff on US goods. The ongoing Section 232 investigation into semiconductors and electronic products is expected to conclude within 270 days, with the President having 90 days to decide on potential actions [2]. - The easing of tensions between the US and China, highlighted by the recent lifting of restrictions on EDA exports to China, suggests that the negative impact of tariff negotiations on the supply chain will gradually diminish [2]. Group 2: AI Development and Product Innovations - Apple is actively seeking external collaborations to enhance its AI capabilities, particularly in improving Siri through technologies from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. This indicates a potential acceleration in the deployment of Apple's system-level AI [2]. - In 2026, Apple is expected to introduce products featuring 2nm chips, enhancing computational speed, and a new cooling system utilizing steel and copper. Additionally, the first foldable screen product is anticipated to be launched, showcasing advanced industrial design with features such as no creases, ultra-thinness, and high durability, which could lead to a significant increase in shipment volumes over the years [3].