UBS(US:UBS) 华尔街见闻·2025-07-09 04:22Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report addresses ten key global economic concerns, highlighting the complex challenges facing the global economy, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Growth - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion [2][3]. - UBS's global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5]. - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data post-tariff announcements, with hard data showing a 3.6% annualized growth while soft data reflects only 1.3% [2]. Group 2: Dollar Depreciation - UBS holds a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not see it as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [10]. - The dollar's depreciation is driven by increased demand for hedging against dollar declines, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10]. - Foreign investors hold $31.3 trillion in U.S. long-term securities, with a potential $1.25 trillion in dollar sell-off if hedging ratios increase by 5% [10]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the July CPI data, with a lag of 2-3 months observed in previous tariff implementations [14][13]. - The 10% general tariff is anticipated to have the most inflationary effect, similar to past experiences [14]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Outlook - The majority of changes in the U.S. budget deficit stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries [23][24]. - UBS estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield's bottom should be around 2.75% even in tight conditions [26]. Group 5: Global Central Bank Responses - The actual impact of tariff shocks has differed significantly from expectations, leading to a shift in central bank policies [46]. - Since April 2, developed market one-year interest rates have decreased by an average of 30 basis points, while emerging markets have seen a decline of about 50 basis points [46]. Group 6: China's Economic Stimulus - China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and announced moderate policy stimulus measures, with fiscal deficits expected to expand to 1.5-2% of GDP [51]. - UBS anticipates further fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 0.5% of GDP, with additional interest rate cuts expected [55][56].