DRAM，大洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM market is entering a structural turning point, with major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and China's Changxin Storage planning to phase out DDR4 products and shift capacity towards DDR5 and high bandwidth memory (HBM) [2][3] Group 1: EOL Plans and Market Dynamics - Samsung will complete its final DDR4 chip orders by June 2025 and ship the last modules by mid-December 2025 [2] - SK Hynix plans to stop taking orders by October 2025 and complete final shipments by April 2026 [2] - Micron has notified customers that its DDR4 will enter EOL in June 2025, with shipments expected to cease in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Changxin Storage aims to complete its last DDR4 shipments by Q4 2025, focusing future production on DDR5 [2] Group 2: Market Supply and Pricing Trends - The EOL actions by the top four suppliers are expected to create a supply-demand imbalance for DDR4, likely lasting until 2026 [3] - DDR4 spot prices have already surpassed DDR5 prices, with a peak difference of 30.3% noted in early June [3] - Historical trends suggest that this price inversion may persist for three to five months until demand for DDR4 significantly decreases [3] Group 3: Price Forecasts - TrendForce predicts that DRAM prices will rise significantly in Q3 2025, with increases of up to 45% driven by capacity reallocation and demand from AI servers [5] - DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 38% to 43% for PCs and 28% to 33% for servers due to supply constraints [6] - LPDDR4X is projected to increase by 23% to 28%, while GDDR6 prices may rise by 28% to 33% as suppliers shift focus to GDDR7 [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The PC DRAM market faces dual pressures from demand and geopolitical factors, with anticipated U.S. tariffs prompting OEMs to expedite orders [8] - A 25% tariff on all memory types from Japan and South Korea starting August 1 is expected to lead to significant price increases for PC DRAM [8]