英伟达：4万亿美元仍然不贵

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is not merely a speculative stock; its valuation reflects its profitability, cash flow generation, and leadership in the AI sector, which is driving an industrial revolution [1][16]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's stock price increased from $29 to $162, while its P/E ratio decreased from over 43x to around 33x [3]. - For the first quarter of FY2026, Nvidia reported total revenue of $44.06 billion and adjusted net income of $23.6 billion [5]. - Free cash flow reached $26.18 billion, marking a historical high for the company [6][11]. - The adjusted gross margin for the first quarter was 71.3%, up from 68.7% in the previous quarter [10]. Business Model Transformation - Nvidia has shifted from being a hardware supplier to providing a complete AI infrastructure, including proprietary software and scalable systems [6][7]. - The data center business generated $39.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 89% of total revenue in the first quarter of FY2026 [6][7]. - The company has developed a robust ecosystem that enhances revenue visibility and reduces dependency on major clients' capital expenditures [7]. Growth Potential - Nvidia's growth is expanding beyond large enterprises to include sovereign AI initiatives and various sectors such as defense and education [9]. - The new Blackwell chip generation is expected to improve profitability and average selling prices [7][27]. - The proprietary network solutions (NVLink, Spectrum-X) are projected to generate over $8 billion in annual recurring revenue [7][27]. Market Position and Valuation - Nvidia's PEG ratio stands at 1.10, indicating a balance between valuation and sustainable growth potential [3][18]. - Compared to competitors like AMD and Intel, Nvidia has the lowest PEG ratio and the highest return on equity (ROE) [19]. - The estimated fair value of Nvidia's stock ranges from $168 to $175 per share, suggesting that the current price of $162 is reasonable with potential for appreciation [23]. Future Outlook - Nvidia expects second-quarter revenue to be around $45 billion, with gross margins projected to expand to 72% [14][15]. - The company is focusing on software profits, which are becoming increasingly significant in its revenue model [13][14]. - Nvidia's ability to consistently exceed expectations is a key driver of its valuation and market confidence [25].