Apple(US:AAPL) Counterpoint Research·2025-07-11 07:48Core Insights - The Japanese smartphone market experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 31% in Q1 2025, primarily driven by strong sales from Apple, which saw a 57% increase in shipments due to the successful launch of the iPhone 16e and the continued success of the iPhone 16 series [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The growth in Japan's smartphone market is notable as it has been perceived as mature with stagnant growth for years, making this performance a significant breakthrough [2]. - Apple contributed nearly 90% of the total market growth, with no other brand exceeding an increase of 500,000 units during the same period, highlighting Apple's dominant position [2]. Group 2: Promotional Activities - The strong growth in the Japanese smartphone market was also fueled by aggressive promotional activities from carriers, retailers, and OEMs, including device discounts, point returns, data plan enhancements, service bundling, and mobile number portability rewards [3]. - Device return programs have quickly gained popularity among Japanese consumers, further stimulating new purchases and device upgrades [3]. Group 3: Apple's Market Dominance - Apple maintains a significantly higher market share in Japan compared to other major countries in Asia and globally, attributed to the evolution of telecom policies, historical channel inertia, and unique cultural factors [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The strong growth is expected to continue into Q2 2025, driven by the iPhone 16e and extensive promotional activities [6]. - However, a decline in sales of the iPhone 16e has been noted since June, and a potential market pullback is anticipated starting in Q3 2025 [6]. - The upcoming iPhone 17, set to launch later in 2025, may spark new competition in the high-end market, although its high pricing could limit some sales potential [6]. - Competing Android brands like Samsung and Google are introducing more cost-effective flagship products to capture market share amid inflation, yen depreciation, and potential tariff increases [6].