Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-07-11 10:04Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable factors are driving risk assets higher, with Goldman Sachs traders predicting a "melt-up" market this summer, driven by strong momentum in AI, bank stocks, Nvidia, Chinese equities, Bitcoin, and copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is not in a position for a significant downturn unless an external shock occurs, suggesting a strong forward-looking market that should follow price trends rather than overanalyze macro signals [2] - The U.S. economy is in the mid-to-late stage of the business cycle with no signs of recession and strong earnings growth, while interest rate cuts are still anticipated [3] - Market sentiment is shifting positively but has not yet reached a euphoric state, indicating further room for growth [4] - Structural cycles show low macro volatility combined with a digital productivity boom, reminiscent of the 1990s environment [5] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Stock Performance - Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator shows one of the most rapid recoveries in history, similar to the performance seen in 2020 [6] - Cyclical stocks are expected to outperform defensive stocks, with bank stocks showing particularly strong performance, indicating that they are a key indicator of economic health [8] Group 3: Inflation and Growth Dynamics - Real inflation is broadly cooling, and the market has moved past growth concerns, with inflation still being a primary risk for most clients [9] - The combination of slowing inflation and accelerating earnings is expected to lead to an expansion in valuation multiples, creating a favorable environment for the stock market, especially in a low volatility context [9] - Current volatility conditions resemble those of the late 2018 to early 2019 bull market setup, with low policy rates suppressing volatility and maintaining ample liquidity [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Global Trends - Signs of recovery are observed in China and emerging markets, with the current environment likened to the emerging market rebound from 2009 to 2015, albeit with different leading sectors focused on technology, AI, and local themes [10] - Breakthrough signals in the Chinese stock market and Bitcoin indicate rising risk appetite and the formation of a re-inflation theme in emerging markets, benefiting countries like Poland and Greece from cyclical and reform-driven tailwinds [10]