GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 郭磊宏观茶座·2025-07-12 02:05Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the performance of major asset classes in the first half of 2025 is expected to follow a pattern of "reversal—reversal—reversal," with gold leading the pack, followed by European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and others, while the US dollar shows a consistent weakening trend [1][16]. - The article highlights that the rotation index for major assets and A-share industries has accelerated, particularly in the first quarter and May-June, with the total ranking changes of 19 major asset classes increasing from 116.7 in late December 2014 to 134.7 in March 2025, before dropping to 115 in April and rebounding to 133.8 in May-June [1][16]. - The article discusses the "odds" playing a crucial role in reversal trading, where economic expectations and event-driven risks can trigger rapid reversals, leading to new trading opportunities [1][16]. Group 2 - The article notes a significant change in the correlation between US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, leading to increased risks and vulnerabilities in dollar-denominated assets, with four instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar occurring in 2025 [2][19]. - It explains that the weakening correlation between US and Chinese assets has resulted in a low correlation between the two stock markets, with the DCC correlation dropping to nearly zero in 2025 [3][27]. - The article emphasizes that the overall relationship between Chinese stocks and the US dollar has become more negative, indicating potential disturbances in the Chinese stock market if the dollar experiences a rebound [3][29]. Group 3 - The article highlights that alternative assets like gold have shown a negative correlation with the dollar and a flat relationship with US bonds, while Bitcoin and stablecoins have performed well due to rising macro uncertainties and diversified hedging demands [4][31]. - It discusses the long-term narrative that Bitcoin and gold are resonant assets, although their daily return correlations are low, indicating different risk-return characteristics [4][35]. - The article suggests that the recent performance of Bitcoin is linked to the "de-dollarization" trend and macro uncertainties, with Bitcoin's price movements showing a significant divergence from the dollar's performance [4][33]. Group 4 - The article proposes a recalibration of traditional indicators due to the emergence of new patterns, suggesting a combination of high-frequency data and soft-hard data indices to better understand economic conditions [5][6]. - It discusses the challenges posed by macro events and geopolitical risks to traditional asset allocation strategies, emphasizing the need for models that can account for these uncertainties [14][36]. - The article indicates that the traditional "trend-following" strategies may lose effectiveness in the face of frequent macro events, necessitating a shift towards "reversal" strategies [14][36].