ICBC(SH:601398) 雪球·2025-07-12 07:46Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of bank stocks, highlighting the significant rise in their market value and the potential for further growth or correction in the future [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 11, the total market capitalization of the five major banks (ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and CMB) reached approximately 9.87 trillion yuan, nearing the 10 trillion yuan mark [7]. - ICBC has surpassed Bank of America, becoming the second-largest commercial bank globally, with a market capitalization of around 2.7 trillion yuan [7][9]. - The A-share banking sector has seen a substantial increase, with some banks like SPDB, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank experiencing year-to-date gains exceeding 36% [5][11]. Group 2: Dividend Trends - The current period marks a peak for cash dividends among listed banks, with total cash dividends for 2024 projected to reach 631.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.03% [11]. - ICBC leads in annual dividends with 109.77 billion yuan, while CCB follows with 100.75 billion yuan [11]. - CMB announced a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per share, totaling approximately 50.44 billion yuan, reflecting a high dividend payout ratio of 33.99% [11]. Group 3: Global Context - Bank stocks have shown strong performance globally, with indices in various regions, including the US, Europe, and Japan, rising over 50% [13]. - The global banking sector's performance is attributed to a common macroeconomic environment, where banks are viewed as stable, dividend-paying assets amid economic uncertainties [13][17]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The article outlines several key investment rationales for the recent surge in bank stocks, including the end of negative sentiment in the real estate sector, a shift towards defensive investment strategies, and the undervaluation of bank stocks [15][16]. - The banking sector is perceived as a safe haven for investors seeking stable returns, especially in a low-growth economic environment [15][16].