Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) 华尔街见闻·2025-07-12 09:03Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant turnaround in the performance of Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) in the first half of the year, with a projected net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of over 1100% [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan's profit surge is attributed not to pig prices but to increased output and effective cost control [3]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 38.394 million pigs in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 18.54%, with a notable 168% increase in piglet sales [26]. - The average breeding cost for Muyuan in 2024 is projected to be 14 yuan per kilogram, with costs decreasing to 12-12.1 yuan per kilogram by June, nearing the annual target of 12 yuan per kilogram [17][18]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the pig farming industry, with government efforts to reduce inventory, capacity, and optimize structure [4][5]. - The number of breeding sows has been adjusted, with a reduction in the breeding sow inventory to stabilize supply and ensure food safety [33][41]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, with over 70% of pig farming now being industrialized, enhancing capital reserves and risk management capabilities [45]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig price is expected to stabilize after a decline, with the market anticipating a recovery due to the reduction in breeding sow inventory and overall weight control of pigs [7][43]. - The prices of key feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal have decreased, contributing to the overall reduction in breeding costs [22][23]. - The industry is likely to see narrow fluctuations in the pig cycle, with profitability increasingly dependent on companies' cost control capabilities rather than price volatility [50].