99%的程序员都将失业吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI on programming, suggesting that traditional coding roles may diminish as AI takes over code generation, leading to a shift in the role of programmers from code writers to problem solvers and system designers [3][28][32]. Group 1: AI Programming Trends - AI programming is identified as one of the most disruptive fields within large models, with predictions that AI will write 90% of code within 3 to 6 months and potentially 99% by the end of 2025 [5][6]. - The employment rate for computer programmers in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since 1980, indicating a significant reduction in job opportunities in this field [6]. - Major companies like Microsoft and Meta report that a substantial portion of their code is now generated by AI, with Microsoft stating that 30% of its code is AI-written and Meta expecting to reach 50% soon [8]. Group 2: Market Potential and Players - The global AI coding market is projected to exceed $20 billion in eight years, with significant potential in the Chinese market, where over 38,000 software and IT companies generated a total software revenue of 12.3 trillion yuan [10]. - Notable players in the AI programming space include Cursor, GitHub Copilot, and Tencent Cloud Code Assistant, with Cursor recently raising $900 million and achieving a valuation of $9 billion [12]. Group 3: Evolution of Programming Roles - The role of programmers is evolving from manual coding to overseeing AI-driven processes, with a focus on task allocation and code review rather than writing code [16][28]. - The emergence of "vibe coding" allows users to generate code through natural language prompts, reducing the need for extensive programming knowledge [13]. Group 4: Future of Programming - The article posits that while traditional programming roles may decline, the demand for skilled problem solvers who can define and optimize systems will increase, leading to a new era where "everyone can be a programmer" [28][32]. - The democratization of programming will enable individuals to create customized software solutions based on their needs, facilitated by AI tools that simplify the coding process [29][32].