研报 | 预估中国Robotaxi市场规模将于2035年达445亿美元

Core Insights - Tesla is testing its Robotaxi technology in Texas and plans to expand services to the San Francisco Bay Area, which has garnered industry attention [1] - The Robotaxi market in the U.S. is expected to be dominated by Tesla and Waymo, with a projected market size of $36.5 billion by 2035 [1] - The Chinese Robotaxi market is also growing rapidly, with an expected market size of $44.5 billion by 2035, driven by a robust supply chain and decreasing hardware costs [3] Group 1: U.S. Robotaxi Market - Tesla's expansion of Robotaxi services depends on two key indicators: the speed of obtaining deployment permits and the timely mass production of the Cybercab by 2026 [2] - The U.S. Robotaxi market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61% from 2025 to 2035 [2] - Tesla's advantages in vehicle manufacturing and visual solutions may allow it to maintain lower hardware costs compared to competitors like Waymo, which may face challenges in maintaining its leadership position [2] Group 2: Chinese Robotaxi Market - The Chinese Robotaxi market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 96% from 2025 to 2035, with a projected market size of $44.5 billion by 2035 [3] - Key players in the Chinese market include Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide, which are actively participating in the sector [3] - The increase in the number of vehicles and strong support from local electric vehicle manufacturers and supply chains will lead to a rapid decrease in hardware costs for Robotaxi solutions [3] Group 3: Challenges in the Robotaxi Industry - The Robotaxi industry faces several challenges, including varying autonomous driving policies across different countries and regions, which may limit fleet expansion [6] - The complexity of autonomous driving technology and the significant R&D investment required make it difficult for new entrants to penetrate the market [6] - Social trust issues, such as potential driver unemployment, vehicle safety concerns, and privacy issues, may impact the future development and adoption of Robotaxi services [6]