市场正押注特朗普会对关税让步，并寄望于美联储救市

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that investors are currently underestimating the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on Mexico and the EU, believing that these tariffs will eventually be negotiated away or postponed [1][3]. - Deutsche Bank warns that the "TACO trade" (the belief that Trump will ultimately back down) is accumulating significant risks, suggesting that the market has not fully absorbed the implications of the high tariffs [2][3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs express concerns that the market's expectation of these tariffs not being implemented may lead to severe market reactions if they do come into effect [3][4]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the economic impact of tariffs will lead to "stagflation tendencies" in the second half of the year, highlighting a disconnect between market pricing and economic forecasts [4]. - The article discusses the prevailing market sentiment that if the "TACO trade" fails, the Federal Reserve will intervene to support the market, but rising tariffs could complicate this scenario by increasing inflation [3][4].