TSMC(US:TSM) 海豚投研·2025-07-17 09:55Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent financial report demonstrates strong performance, countering market concerns following ASML's revenue guidance downgrade. The company maintains confidence in its operations and capital expenditure plans, indicating resilience in the semiconductor sector [5][8]. Revenue Performance - TSMC reported a revenue of $30.1 billion for Q2 2025, a 17.8% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by growth in high-performance computing (HPC) and a recovery in mobile business. The revenue exceeded the guidance range of $28.4 to $29.2 billion, primarily due to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1][5]. - The wafer shipment volume reached 3,718 thousand units, reflecting a 14.1% quarter-over-quarter increase, while the revenue per wafer was $8,088, up 3.2% [1][4]. Profitability Metrics - TSMC's gross margin for the quarter was 58.6%, within the guidance range of 57-59%. The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has impacted gross margins over the past two quarters, and future production of 2nm technology may exert additional pressure on margins [1][3]. Business Segment Insights - Advanced process technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of TSMC's revenue, with 3nm and 5nm technologies contributing 24% and 36% respectively. The demand for AI applications is driving this shift towards advanced nodes [2][6]. - HPC remains the primary revenue driver, generating $18 billion, which constitutes 60% of total revenue. Other segments, including mobile and IoT, are also showing signs of recovery [2][6]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for the quarter was $9.63 billion, aligning with expectations. The company maintains its full-year capital expenditure target of $38-42 billion, reflecting confidence in its operational outlook despite ASML's revenue forecast reduction [3][5]. Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, TSMC expects revenue between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 55.5% to 57.5%. This growth is anticipated to be driven by the ramp-up of GB series production and new product launches from Apple [3][5]. Market Position and Outlook - TSMC is positioned to enter a growth phase in the second half of 2025, supported by increased production of the GB series, new Apple device launches, and the transition to 2nm technology. The company is expected to maintain its leadership in the semiconductor market, particularly in AI applications [6][8].