ASML Holding(US:ASML) 美股研究社·2025-07-17 12:55Core Viewpoint - ASML's fundamentals are at odds with market sentiment, but its valuation is at a historical low, indicating significant investment value. The current stock is considered a buy from a direct equity investment perspective [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - ASML's stock price rebounded over 40% from its low, but fell 9% on the day of the Q2 2025 earnings announcement despite exceeding expectations in sales, net profit, and net bookings [5]. - The decline was attributed to the CEO's cautious outlook on 2026 growth due to rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite strong fundamentals in the AI customer base [5]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was €7.7 billion, with a net income margin of 29.8% and earnings per share of €5.90 [9]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - ASML holds a unique position in a high-growth market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 9% over the next few years [7]. - The revenue structure includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, accounting for 48% and 43% of total revenue, respectively, with EUV being a unique offering that provides significant pricing power [7]. - The company has demonstrated a robust ability to convert revenue into profit, with a gross margin of 53.7% and an operating margin of 34.6% [9]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - ASML's balance sheet is healthy, with net cash reserves of $6.3 billion and a current dividend yield of 1.3%, indicating substantial room for dividend growth [10]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a buyback of €1.4 billion in the latest quarter, contributing to earnings per share growth [11]. - R&D spending reached €1.2 billion in the latest quarter, representing 15.6% of sales, ensuring the maintenance of its technological leadership [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - ASML's current trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, which is at a historical low, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - The expected annual revenue growth rate from 2025 to 2030 is projected to be between 7% and 13%, with earnings per share growth potentially reaching 11% to 22% [14]. - Scenario analysis indicates that if earnings per share reach $60.13 by 2030, the stock price could rise to $1,683, yielding a compound annual return of nearly 18% [15].