SIEYUAN(SZ:002028) 雪球·2025-07-19 03:39Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment principles, focusing on valuation, industry trends, and the cyclical nature of markets to identify potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5]. Group 1: First Principles of Investment - The essence of investment is buying companies, with valuation being the core principle. If a company's future profit growth is realized, the stock price will align with expectations [3]. - A case study of "Siyuan Electric" illustrates that a stock can appreciate significantly while maintaining a reasonable valuation, demonstrating the power of matching valuation with performance [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends vs. Static Valuation - Industry trends can outweigh short-term valuation metrics. For instance, during the pig cycle in 2019, related stocks surged despite high static valuations, as the industry trend drove growth [4]. - The example of CATL shows that high valuations can be justified during periods of explosive growth, indicating that potential future industry trends can create significant investment opportunities [4]. Group 3: Leveraging Cycles - Cycles are a critical factor in investment, influenced by external factors like U.S. interest rate changes and the cyclical nature of A-shares [5]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector's decline since 2021 highlights how external cycles can impact stock performance, suggesting that a future U.S. rate cut could lead to significant gains in this sector [5]. Group 4: Business Models and Investment Aesthetics - Successful investments often involve a combination of the discussed principles, but prioritizing a solid business model is crucial. A sustainable business model ensures long-term growth and resilience against market fluctuations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding the underlying business model, as it determines a company's ability to create value over time, contrasting with those reliant on short-term market trends [6]. Group 5: Broader Understanding and Investment Philosophy - Developing an aesthetic sense in investment is essential, akin to appreciating art. This involves recognizing which stocks have lasting value versus those that are fleeting [7]. - Insights gained from life experiences can enhance investment judgment, helping investors maintain focus on long-term holdings amidst market volatility [7].