SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 雪涛宏观笔记·2025-07-20 14:14Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on China, reaching 48.2% in 2025, and its implications for global trade dynamics, particularly in the semiconductor and consumer goods sectors [4][6]. Tariff Changes - The average tariff rate for China is projected to rise from 10.9% in 2024 to 48.2% by May 2025, marking a substantial increase of 37.4% [3][4]. - Other countries such as the EU and Japan will also see increases in their respective tariff rates, with the EU's rate expected to rise from 1.2% to 6.7% and Japan's from 1.5% to 14.1% during the same period [3][5]. South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in early July, reaching $19.4 billion [9]. - Key export categories for South Korea include semiconductors, precision instruments, and automobiles, indicating resilience despite global trade tensions [9]. Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with transaction volumes declining by 12.1% year-on-year as of mid-July, particularly in first and second-tier cities [10]. - Price indices are also adjusting, with major cities like Beijing facing significant downward pressure on prices [10]. Consumer Electronics and Automotive Sales - Despite a decline in absolute sales figures, the consumer electronics sector in China is showing resilience, with a year-on-year sales increase of 34.6% in early July [12]. - The automotive sector also reported a 7% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with the new energy vehicle market seeing a notable increase in penetration rates [12].