碳酸锂反转已至，全产业链出清近尾声

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has begun to rise significantly, indicating a potential recovery in the lithium market after a prolonged downturn [1][4][9]. Price Trends - On July 23, battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan per ton, averaging 69,100 yuan per ton, with peak prices surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1]. - The futures market also saw a rise, with the main contract closing at 73,000 yuan per ton on July 22, reflecting a strong upward trend [1]. - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards a more optimistic outlook for lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and improved company performance [1][4]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate is tightening due to production cuts and maintenance at lithium salt plants, which has contributed to rising prices [5][6]. - High-cost lithium mines are gradually taking over supply, pushing prices above the cash loss threshold of 65,000 yuan per ton [2][4]. - Despite a general oversupply in the lithium market, the clearing price for lithium carbonate is being pushed higher due to these supply-side constraints [1][9]. Industry Performance - Several lithium salt companies have reported improved performance compared to the anticipated losses in 2024, with some turning profitable [1]. - The lithium battery industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of over 40% in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The demand for lithium resources remains strong, with China continuing to import lithium ore despite local production challenges [5][6]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that lithium carbonate prices could stabilize around 100,000 yuan per ton, which would be a healthy price point for the industry [10]. - The lithium battery supply chain is nearing the end of its clearing phase, with stable demand supporting price increases [11]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries is anticipated to begin in 2025, marking a significant development in the industry [16].