亚马逊：估值接近危机水平

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock performance has lagged behind the market primarily due to the disparity between revenue growth and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with expected revenue growth of 9.4% and EPS growth of only 3.6% for Q2 [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the upcoming quarters, Amazon's EPS growth is projected to consistently lag behind revenue growth, indicating potential concerns about operational leverage and fundamental issues [4]. - Analysts remain optimistic, attributing the temporary slowdown in EPS growth to significant investments in growth and innovation rather than cost management issues [5]. - Amazon's R&D spending has exceeded $90 billion over the past 12 months, more than double that of fiscal year 2020, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5]. Future Earnings Estimates - Analysts have revised future EPS estimates positively, with projections for fiscal years 2031-2033 seeing increases of over 20%, suggesting confidence in Amazon's long-term investment strategy [6]. - The expected P/E ratio for Amazon is projected to decline significantly over the next five years, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's market position in e-commerce and cloud services [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Record - Amazon has consistently exceeded Wall Street's EPS expectations over the past eight quarters, with only one instance of revenue falling short, indicating strong operational performance [7]. Market Valuation - The average target price set by Wall Street analysts for Amazon is relatively conservative at $247, suggesting limited short-term upside potential [8]. - The current TTM P/E ratio of 37.35 is considered low for Amazon, especially compared to historical levels during market downturns [15]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Amazon's strategy of increasing its robotics workforce is expected to yield significant long-term value for shareholders by reducing labor costs, with potential market cap increases of 13%-40% based on conservative estimates [12][13]. - For patient long-term investors, Amazon remains a strong buy due to its proactive innovation spending likely to yield returns over time [16].