喜马拉雅要靠山，腾讯音乐要希望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Ximalaya, questioning whether it is worth 20.9 billion yuan after its acquisition by Tencent Music, highlighting a significant drop from its previous valuation of 30 billion yuan during the last funding round [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Comparison - Ximalaya's valuation of 20.9 billion yuan is comparable to seven times that of Zhihu, eight times that of Keep, and eleven times that of Douyu, indicating a substantial reduction in perceived value [2]. - The company has faced four unsuccessful attempts to go public and has incurred losses exceeding 3 billion yuan over five years, making the discounted sale seem reasonable [2]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - The article emphasizes that copyright is the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, similar to how Tencent Music cannot afford to lose Jay Chou, Ximalaya cannot afford to lose Guo Degang [5][3]. - Ximalaya has strategically invested in copyright since 2014, partnering with Guo Degang's company, and has secured 70% of the market's audio book adaptation rights through agreements with major copyright holders [9][11]. Group 3: Revenue Structure and Challenges - Ximalaya's revenue structure shows that subscription income contributes over half of its total revenue, with a significant reliance on audio books and traditional storytelling formats [12][13]. - Despite having a large user base, the platform struggles with monetization, as evidenced by a decline in subscription revenue growth from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023 [35]. Group 4: User Engagement and Market Limitations - Ximalaya's average monthly active users reached 300 million, but the user engagement metrics indicate a potential ceiling, with average listening time declining from 144 minutes in 2021 to 130 minutes in 2023 [22][30]. - The platform's user base includes a significant number of IoT and third-party platform users, which limits the monetization potential compared to video platforms [31]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The article compares Ximalaya's situation to that of its competitors, noting that platforms like Lizhi, which rely on user-generated content, have lower monetization rates, highlighting Ximalaya's relatively better performance [17][19]. - The online audio market faces challenges due to a lack of a broad audience and a mature commercial mechanism, making it difficult to balance high copyright costs with revenue generation [58]. Group 6: Acquisition Context - Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya reflects a strategic move to consolidate its position in the online audio market, especially after struggling with its own platform, Penguin FM [62][64]. - The acquisition gives Tencent Music control over a significant portion of the online audio market, with Ximalaya holding a market share of 45.52% [64].