周航：特斯拉真的值万亿美金吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges Tesla faces in its Full-Self Driving (FSD) subscription model, AI technology development, and the transition to Robotaxi operations, which are critical for its long-term valuation and market perception [11]. Group 1: FSD Subscription Market - The current FSD subscription price is $99 per month, reduced from $199 in April 2024, but its sustainability is uncertain [4]. - Tesla's global vehicle ownership is approximately 7.6 million, with an estimated FSD subscription user ratio of less than 15% [4]. - The acceptance of FSD subscription pricing varies by region, with potential pressure from local competitors in markets like China, which may force Tesla to adjust its pricing strategy [4]. Group 2: AI Technology vs. Manufacturing Capacity - Tesla's FSD system has made significant advancements with the introduction of end-to-end deep learning and improvements in latency to under 50 milliseconds [6]. - However, the automotive production capacity is a bottleneck, with global annual vehicle sales around 88.3 million and Tesla's projected 2024 deliveries at 1.79 million, representing about 2% of the global market [7]. - The disparity between rapid AI software development and the slower pace of automotive manufacturing could limit user experience improvements [7]. Group 3: Transition to Robotaxi Operations - Tesla's Robotaxi initiative, set to begin trial operations in Austin in June 2025, faces significant operational challenges beyond technological advancements [9]. - Key operational complexities include fleet management, high maintenance costs, and societal acceptance issues, which could hinder the success of Robotaxi services [9][10]. - The profitability of Robotaxi operations will depend on daily mileage, passenger utilization rates, and cost control, with failure to achieve scalable profitability potentially impacting Tesla's long-term valuation [10]. Group 4: Tesla's Valuation Factors - Tesla's current stock price is $332.11, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.07 trillion and a P/E ratio of 178.2 [12]. - The company's valuation is influenced not only by financial metrics but also by the challenges in subscription acceptance, AI technology alignment with production capacity, and the feasibility of Robotaxi operations [12]. - The future valuation of Tesla is a dynamic interplay of market conditions, user acceptance, technological advancements, and regulatory factors [12].