特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰泼了三盆冷水

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's automotive sales have experienced the largest decline in a decade, raising concerns about its high valuation, particularly regarding the anticipated Robotaxi business, which faces significant challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Robotaxi Challenges - The Robotaxi business is hindered by three main challenges: technological reliability, consumer behavior change, and profitability proof [5]. - Technological reliability is questioned as Tesla needs to demonstrate that its camera-only solution is as robust as the multi-sensor fusion approach commonly used in the industry. Early signs from the Austin pilot are not promising, with only about 7,000 miles accumulated across a few vehicles, translating to less than half the daily trips of Waymo vehicles [5]. - Changing consumer behavior poses a significant hurdle, as transitioning from private car ownership to Robotaxi usage is described as a "huge challenge" that requires a fundamental shift in consumer habits [5]. - There is a lack of evidence proving the profitability of the Robotaxi business, with internal disputes about its financial viability. For reference, Waymo's recent $6 billion equity financing indicates its own distance from profitability [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Outlook - Tesla has failed to meet market expectations for EBIT for three consecutive quarters, marking the 11th time in 12 quarters that performance has fallen short [3]. - HSBC has lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for Tesla, projecting a 1-3% decrease in revenue and a 3-7% decrease in gross profit for 2025-2027, with a significant cut of 16-27% in operating income expectations [10][11]. - The updated financial estimates show a decline in operational profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 27% and 23%, respectively, with current projections approximately 66% lower than a year ago [11][12]. Group 3: Broader Business Challenges - Tesla's automotive business faces structural challenges, including an aging product line, increased market competition, and a damaged brand image, compounded by tariffs and the end of U.S. electric vehicle incentives [6]. - Despite Elon Musk's assertions that advancements in autonomous driving and humanoid robots will elevate Tesla's value, actual progress remains limited, particularly with the slow development of the Robotaxi initiative [7][8].