当特斯拉卖不出电车，锂电应该担心需求吗？

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in its automotive business and overall revenue, indicating a shift in its growth narrative from a solely electric vehicle manufacturer to a broader "physical AI" company [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 of fiscal year 2025, Tesla's revenue decreased by 12% year-over-year to $22.5 billion, marking the largest decline in a decade [1] - The core automotive business revenue fell by 16%, and free cash flow was only $146 million, significantly below expectations [1] - Global vehicle deliveries dropped by 13.5% year-over-year to 384,000 units, with a total delivery decline exceeding 13% in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - Sales in the U.S. decreased by 13% in the first half of the year, with California experiencing seven consecutive quarters of decline [2] - The European market saw a drastic 33% drop in sales during the same period, while sales in China fell by 12% due to intense competition from local brands like BYD and Xiaomi [2] Group 3: Strategic Shift - Tesla is pivoting its focus towards future technologies such as Robotaxi, humanoid robots (Optimus), and artificial intelligence, moving away from immediate sales figures [2][3] - The introduction of Robotaxi is seen as a short-term bet, while Optimus represents a long-term vision, with production expected to start in 2026 [4] Group 4: Battery Technology and Production - The shift in vehicle utilization necessitates a fundamental change in battery technology, emphasizing longevity and reliability over traditional metrics [4] - The demand for specialized lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to rise, as Optimus robots will create a stable internal demand for Tesla's battery production [4] Group 5: Energy Storage and Manufacturing - Tesla is expanding its energy storage business, with the Megapack system experiencing strong growth, which serves as a hedge against policy risks [5] - The company is investing in domestic manufacturing, with plans for a lithium iron phosphate factory and a new energy storage super factory by 2026 [5] Group 6: Implications for the Lithium Battery Industry - Short-term, Tesla's slowing vehicle sales may pressure the lithium battery supply chain [6] - Long-term, Tesla's strategic transformation could create new, potentially larger demand spaces for lithium batteries, moving towards a diversified demand matrix [7]