重估茅台

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback plan of 3 billion to 6 billion yuan, leading to a significant stock price increase of over 50% within a week, resulting in a market capitalization growth of 770 billion yuan [3]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Market Reaction - The buyback plan is set to be executed within 12 months at a price not exceeding 1795.78 yuan, corresponding to a market value of 2.2555 trillion yuan [3]. - Following the announcement, Moutai's stock price surged from 1224.48 yuan to 1844.44 yuan, marking a 50% increase [3]. - By June 2025, Moutai had repurchased 338 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of the total share capital, which slightly increased the earnings per share from 68.64 yuan to 68.83 yuan [3]. Group 2: Direct Sales Strategy - Moutai's direct sales ratio has remained above 40% for three consecutive years, which has helped stabilize prices and improve profitability [6][10]. - The gross profit margin for direct sales is significantly higher than that of wholesale agents, with 2024 figures showing 95.33% for direct sales compared to 89.42% for agents [7]. - The direct sales model allows Moutai to better understand market demand and optimize product structure, thereby enhancing profitability [8]. Group 3: Series Liquor Performance - The proportion of series liquor sales has fluctuated around 11% from 2018 to 2020, but increased to 20% by Q2 2024 [19][20]. - Moutai 1935 has become a significant product, achieving annual sales of 24.68 billion yuan, with Moutai 1935 accounting for about half of that [22]. - Despite recent growth in series liquor sales, the new management appears more conservative compared to previous leadership, focusing on stability rather than aggressive expansion [23]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Moutai has employed both direct price increases and indirect methods through increasing direct sales ratios to raise effective selling prices [25][26]. - The actual factory price of Moutai liquor has risen from 820 yuan in 2017 to 1480 yuan in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift in pricing [29]. - The current management is cautious about raising nominal prices, indicating limited room for future price increases [29]. Group 5: Production Capacity and Inventory - Moutai's production capacity for base liquor has increased significantly, with base liquor capacity rising from 3.74 million tons in 2018 to 4.46 million tons in 2024 [30]. - The utilization rate of base liquor capacity has averaged 129% from 2018 to 2024, indicating that Moutai is operating near its production limits [32]. - As of the end of 2024, Moutai holds a base liquor inventory of 292,000 tons, which could potentially produce 500 million bottles of Moutai liquor, valued at approximately 580 billion yuan [40]. Group 6: Industry Challenges - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a decline in demand, with production dropping from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to only 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024 [43]. - The market is experiencing polarization, with low-end products being cleared out while mid-to-high-end segments see increased market share [44]. - Moutai's high price-to-earnings ratio (50 times) and low dividend yield (less than 4%) raise concerns about its ability to deliver returns to investors in a shrinking market [43][48].