SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-08-04 03:28Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data for July, primarily due to significant downward revisions in May and June employment figures, raising questions about whether these adjustments are due to statistical factors or a weakening economy [2][4] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000, with May and June figures revised down by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively, indicating a potential shift in the labor market's "tight balance" [5][11] - The downward revisions in employment data are largely concentrated in the government sector, suggesting that the previously reported strong job growth was misleading [5][9] Group 2 - The article questions the reasons behind the significant downward revisions in May and June employment data, indicating that statistical factors alone cannot fully explain the changes, and the primary reason appears to be a weakening job market [23][24] - Historical patterns show that downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic slowdowns, suggesting that the current employment data may reflect broader economic challenges [41][49] - The U.S. labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease significantly [49][61] Group 3 - The economic outlook for the second half of the year suggests a continuation of the slowdown, with factors such as increased tariffs and reduced consumer spending likely to suppress job growth and real income [3][5] - Following the release of the July non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 80%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a potential recession [3][5] - The article highlights that the labor market's current state may lead to a higher unemployment rate, with projections suggesting it could reach around 4.5% in the coming months [3][61]