SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-08-04 03:28Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, particularly materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials, which dropped 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - Other developed countries also saw declines in their 10-year bond yields, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly fell, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27][39] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45][46] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52][58] Group 6 - The US economy's Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%, but internal demand showed signs of weakness [73] - Consumer spending in Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 1.5% [73] - The overall GDP growth was primarily driven by net exports, indicating a potential end to the trend of "importing" [73] Group 7 - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 104,000, with previous months' job additions revised down significantly [76] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the anticipated 7.5 million [76]