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热点思考 | 美国劳动力市场:脆弱的“紧平衡”(申万宏观·赵伟团队)

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data for July, primarily due to significant downward revisions in May and June employment figures [2][4] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000, while May and June figures were revised down by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively [5][11] - The downward revisions were mainly concentrated in the government sector, indicating that the previously reported strong employment figures were misleading [5][9] Group 2 - The article questions the reasons behind the substantial downward revisions in May and June, suggesting that statistical factors cannot fully explain the changes, and the primary reason is a weakening labor market [2][23] - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic downturns, suggesting a potential economic slowdown [40][48] - The labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease significantly [48][60] Group 3 - The economic outlook for the second half of the year indicates a continuation of the slowdown trend, with factors such as increased tariffs and reduced consumer spending likely to suppress economic growth [3][60] - Following the release of the July non-farm data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][60] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's focus may shift towards the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [3][60] Group 4 - The article highlights that the labor market's current state reflects a mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by immigration policies that have reduced labor supply [64][66] - The equilibrium level of job growth needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate has decreased, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [64][66] - The article suggests that while immigration policy changes may alleviate some upward pressure on unemployment, they may not fully counteract the weakening demand in the labor market [64][66]