苹果：5000亿美元的问题

Core Viewpoint - Apple Inc. reported record Q3 FY2025 earnings with revenue and net profit both achieving double-digit growth, driven primarily by a 13% increase in iPhone revenue across all regions, particularly in the Americas [1] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit grew by 10% and 12% respectively in Q3 FY2025 [1] - Free cash flow for the past 12 months was $96.2 billion, which is insufficient to support the projected increase in capital expenditures [6] - The company returned over $27 billion to shareholders in the last quarter, totaling an annualized return of $108 billion [6] Investment Plans - Analysts express concern over Apple's $500 billion investment plan, which would require an average annual capital expenditure increase of 10 times, amounting to an additional $125 billion per year [2][13] - If the investment plan proceeds, free cash flow could turn negative, necessitating a halt to stock buybacks and dividends to maintain net cash balance [8][13] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Apple's supply chain strategy is viewed positively, but skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of the $500 billion investment target over the next four years [3] - The majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are sourced from India, while other products like Macs and iPads are primarily produced in Vietnam [10][11] Margin and Cost Outlook - The management expects gross margins for Q4 FY2025 to be between 46% and 47%, which includes $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs [10] - Analysts note that macroeconomic factors have impacted margins, with a 60 basis point decline observed, although the gross margin remains at the upper end of previous guidance [8]