Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-08-07 05:12Core Viewpoint - The report from Goldman Sachs indicates that recent economic data has contradicted Powell's hawkish statements, suggesting a significant weakening in the labor market, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive easing policy [1][2]. Labor Market Weakness - The non-farm payroll data released last week shows that the U.S. job market has "clearly turned," prompting the Fed to consider larger rate cuts at the September meeting [2][6]. - Employment growth has been at its lowest level in the past three months, particularly in the private sector, with GDP growth rate declining by approximately 100 basis points compared to the same period last year [4]. - The unemployment rate is gradually rising, and there is a significant divergence between the Labor Market Discrepancy Index (LMD) and the unemployment rate, indicating that the latter may underestimate the actual weakness in the labor market [5]. Rate Cut Expectations - The market is currently pricing in a 22 basis point cut for the Fed's September meeting, but Goldman Sachs expects a consensus around a 50 basis point cut instead of the widely anticipated 25 basis points [3][6]. - The report suggests that if inflation does not accelerate, the Fed could implement a 50 basis point cut or even larger [6][9]. - The expectation for a 50 basis point cut is becoming a benchmark in the market, as the evidence of labor market weakness mounts [8]. Broader Economic Implications - The report emphasizes that while a full economic downturn is not anticipated, it is "extremely clear" that policy rates should not remain at current levels [10]. - The rising unemployment rate among Black Americans and the rapid decline of the diffusion index are highlighted as indicators of a painful job market [7].