美银：市场“错杀”了礼来？

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's stock price dropped 15% following its Q2 earnings report, driven by market concerns over future competition, pricing pressures, and threats from generics, despite the company's strong fundamentals and significant growth potential in the obesity drug market [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported Q2 total revenue of $15.558 billion, a 38% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bank of America's expectations by 4% and market expectations by 6% [5]. - The obesity drug Mounjaro generated $5.199 billion in revenue, surpassing expectations by 16%, while Zepbound achieved $3.381 billion, exceeding expectations by 8% [5]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $6.31, exceeding Bank of America's expectations by 8% and market expectations by 13% [5]. - The gross margin reached 85.0%, up 3 percentage points from the previous year, driven by improved product mix and production efficiency [5]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - The market's negative reaction was attributed to heightened anxiety regarding the future of the obesity drug business, overshadowing the company's strong performance [6]. - Investors expressed significant concern during the earnings call about the competitive landscape for the oral obesity drug Orforglipron, despite management's satisfaction with its performance [7]. - Pricing trends and potential competition from generics, particularly semaglutide, were major discussion points, with analysts highlighting the risk of market disruption in 2026 [8]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Bank of America analysts reiterated a "buy" rating for Eli Lilly, citing the 15% stock price drop as a "special opportunity" [10]. - The company's revenue growth guidance for 2025 is approximately 35%, significantly outpacing the average growth rate of 4% for peers in the U.S. and European pharmaceutical sectors [12]. - Eli Lilly's valuation, based on the projected P/E ratio for 2026, is only twice that of the second-fastest growing competitor, indicating a significant value opportunity given its superior growth rate [13].