申万宏观·周度研究成果（8.2-8.8）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. labor market, highlighting its fragile "tight balance" and the implications for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, particularly the likelihood of a rate cut in September 2025 [12]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. July employment data was weaker than market expectations, primarily due to significant downward revisions in employment figures for May and June [12]. - The article raises questions about whether the downward revisions are due to statistical factors or indicative of a weakening economy [12]. - The Federal Reserve's potential decision to cut interest rates in September is suggested to be increasingly likely [12]. Group 2: Monthly Outlook - The article presents a paradox regarding inflation expectations, driven by anti-involution trends, while actual price performance remains weak [13]. - It emphasizes the need to monitor how supply and demand dynamics will evolve and their impact on pricing [13]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to 18.3% after August 1, 2025, which may affect trade dynamics [24]. Group 3: Export Trends - In July, China's exports (in U.S. dollar terms) grew by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.8% [19]. - Imports also showed a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, compared to an expected 0.3% [19]. Group 4: Domestic High-Frequency Data - There has been a significant decline in port cargo volumes, indicating a seasonal slowdown in industrial production and mixed performance in the construction sector [21]. - The article notes that the construction industry is experiencing varied levels of activity, contributing to the overall decline in cargo volumes [21].