“卖印度、买中国”！“关税战”逆转中印股市叙事

Group 1 - The Indian MSCI index has underperformed the Chinese stock market by approximately 10 percentage points this quarter, potentially marking the largest annual performance gap since 2017 [1][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Indian stock market will continue to lag behind other emerging markets, maintaining a "neutral" rating on Indian stocks while reiterating an "overweight" stance on Chinese stocks and raising the 12-month target for the MSCI China index [4][6] - The market dynamics have shifted due to the recent imposition of a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods by Trump, which has led to a significant capital outflow from India, with around $3 billion leaving the market last month, the largest monthly outflow since February [4][6] Group 2 - The trade dispute has reshaped the investment landscape between China and India, with the recent tariff actions being particularly targeted and sudden [5] - The deteriorating US-India relations and new tariffs may undermine India's manufacturing ambitions, causing investor concerns regarding India's high valuations and slowing profit growth [7][8] - In contrast, China offers more attractive investment opportunities in rapidly growing sectors such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, and biotechnology, which may support the "buy China" investment logic in the short term [9]