宁德时代锂矿停产，不会改写市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent production halt at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices, leading to market fluctuations and increased stock prices in the lithium sector [3][4]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Ningde Times announced the suspension of operations at the Jianxiawo mining area due to the expiration of mining qualifications, which has been a key factor in the recent volatility of lithium carbonate prices [3]. - The Jianxiawo mining area is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun region, with a recoverable reserve of 77,492 million tons and a production capacity of 30 million tons per year, resulting in a service life of approximately 25.83 years [4]. - The monthly supply of lithium carbonate from the Jianxiawo mining area is estimated to be around 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total production [4]. - The production scale of eight mining rights in the region is 73.9 million tons per year, with seven mines currently in operation, contributing to approximately 20% of the domestic monthly output [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market analysis predicts that supply disruptions will drive lithium prices above 80,000 RMB per ton, with a subsequent correction to a trading range of 70,000 to 80,000 RMB per ton [4]. - The price of lithium carbonate saw a significant increase from 58,400 RMB per ton to 80,500 RMB per ton between June 23 and July 25, marking a rise of 36.71%, but fell back to around 68,000 RMB per ton by August 5 [6]. - The industry consensus indicates that both surges and drops in lithium carbonate prices lack fundamental support, with expectations of an oversupply situation persisting throughout the year [6]. Group 3: Demand and Future Outlook - Major material companies and battery manufacturers continue to expand production, with leading LFP material companies achieving capacity utilization rates exceeding 80% [8]. - The demand for lithium remains robust, as evidenced by long-term contracts signed by Ningde Times with several phosphate lithium companies [8]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a gradual clearing process, with supply adjustments and increased imports from Africa anticipated to support future demand [9][7].