Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-08-11 11:39Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates a significant shift in the cost-sharing structure of tariffs in the U.S., with consumers expected to bear 67% of the costs by October, while businesses' share will drop to less than 10% [1][2][9] - This transition is anticipated to exert upward pressure on inflation, with the core PCE inflation rate projected to reach 3.2% by the end of the year [1][10] Cost Distribution Changes - As of June, U.S. businesses absorbed 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers and foreign exporters bore 22% and 14%, respectively [2][6] - The delay in cost transmission means that businesses initially absorbed the tariff impacts to maintain market share, but these costs will eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices [2][7] Impact on Import Prices - The report notes a slight decrease in import prices post-tariff implementation, suggesting that foreign exporters are lowering their prices to absorb some of the tariff costs [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign exporters will bear 25% of the tariff costs by October, with a potential overall decrease in U.S. import prices of 3.7% by the end of 2025 due to a cumulative effective tariff rate increase of 14 percentage points [5] Inflationary Pressure - The analysis predicts that the majority of tariff costs will be transferred to U.S. consumers in the coming months, significantly impacting inflation [7] - By October, the share of tariff costs borne by consumers is expected to rise sharply from 22% to 67%, while the share for businesses will plummet from 64% to 8% [9] Specific Product Impact - The report highlights that companies heavily reliant on imported components may face greater cost pressures, while domestic producers protected from import competition may benefit from raising their prices [8]