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美国CPI今夜登场,唯有爆表,才会阻止9月降息?

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the release of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a slight inflation increase that is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in September [1][2]. Inflation Expectations - The consensus forecast for the July CPI indicates a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from June, and a year-over-year increase from 2.7% to 2.8%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February [2][3]. Institutional Forecasts - Various financial institutions have provided their forecasts for the July CPI, with the median forecast showing a month-over-month increase of 0.24% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for the headline CPI, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.31% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [3]. Tariff Impact - The data will serve as a critical signal to assess the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices. Wells Fargo notes that the data will further validate the inflationary effects of tariff increases, although the distribution of the burden among consumers, domestic sellers, and foreign exporters remains unclear [5][6]. Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - Following a significant drop in non-farm employment data, analysts believe that as long as inflation does not exhibit extreme overheating, a rate cut in September is almost certain. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is currently estimated at 89% [7][17]. Market Reactions - Goldman Sachs suggests that as long as the core CPI does not exceed a month-over-month increase of 0.44%, the market will view tariffs as a short-term influence, limiting their impact on rate cut expectations [8][12]. Price Trends - Key price trends expected in the July CPI report include a 0.75% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% decrease in new car prices, a 2% increase in airfare prices, and a direct contribution of approximately 0.12 percentage points to the core inflation month-over-month increase from tariffs [11]. Future Inflation Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that excluding tariff impacts, underlying inflation trends will further decline, primarily driven by easing pressures from housing rents and the labor market. By December 2025, core CPI and core PCE year-over-year increases are expected to be 3.3%, dropping to 2.5% when excluding tariff effects [15]. Data Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of data collection for the CPI, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended price collection in some cities, leading to a higher estimation ratio. This could result in greater volatility in monthly data and potential significant revisions [20][21]. Market Volatility - Following the CPI release, market volatility is expected to increase, with predictions of a 0.70% fluctuation, the highest since May of this year. The volatility index (VIX) is currently at a low level, indicating potential for significant market reactions [24].