无惧特朗普炮轰，高盛回应：关税将开始冲击消费者的钱包

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle maintains that recent tariffs will significantly impact consumers, predicting that by autumn, consumers will bear approximately two-thirds of the costs associated with these tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - Mericle asserts that if the recent tariffs, such as those imposed in April, follow the same pattern observed in earlier tariffs from February, consumers will shoulder about 67% of the costs by October [1][4]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had already absorbed 22% of the tariff costs, indicating a substantial increase in consumer burden expected in the coming months [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise to 3.2% by the end of the year, up from a June rate of 2.8%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Despite the anticipated consumer burden from tariffs, Mericle believes that the Federal Reserve will likely proceed with the interest rate cuts requested by President Trump, as the primary concern remains the labor market [3][5]. - The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts in each of the remaining three meetings this year, following a lackluster July jobs report and revisions to previous employment data [5].